{"id":22391,"date":"2026-08-28T09:45:42","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T07:45:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thinktopaz.cz\/?p=22391"},"modified":"2026-08-28T09:45:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T07:45:42","slug":"ondrej-filipec-budovani-odolnosti-vuci-ruske-hybridni-valce-v-pobaltskem-regionu-a-jeho-sirsim-okoli-klicova-ponauceni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/2026\/08\/28\/ondrej-filipec-budovani-odolnosti-vuci-ruske-hybridni-valce-v-pobaltskem-regionu-a-jeho-sirsim-okoli-klicova-ponauceni\/","title":{"rendered":"Ond\u0159ej Filipec: Budov\u00e1n\u00ed odolnosti v\u016f\u010di rusk\u00e9 hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lce v pobaltsk\u00e9m regionu a jeho \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm okol\u00ed: kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 ponau\u010den\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Shrnut\u00ed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

V posledn\u00edch letech Rusk\u00e1 federace zes\u00edlila sv\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 hybridn\u00ed aktivity zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na destabilizaci c\u00edlov\u00fdch zem\u00ed a prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed revizionistick\u00fdch ambic\u00ed. Z historick\u00e9ho a geopolitick\u00e9ho hlediska je rusk\u00e1 hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b intenzivn\u00ed pod\u00e9l v\u00fdchodn\u00edch hranic Evropsk\u00e9 unie, kde se projevuje v nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch podob\u00e1ch: od tzv. st\u00ednov\u00fdch flotil operuj\u00edc\u00edch v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i a instrumentalizace migrace na polsko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9 hranici, p\u0159es dezinforma\u010dn\u00ed kampan\u011b naru\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00ed ekosyst\u00e9my a\u017e po naru\u0161en\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru pomoc\u00ed bezpilotn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f testuj\u00edc\u00ed soudr\u017enost NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rostouc\u00ed obavy vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 rovn\u011b\u017e vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed do volebn\u00edch proces\u016f, kter\u00e9 bylo v\u00fdrazn\u011b zaznamen\u00e1no nap\u0159\u00edklad v Moldavsku, kde se ru\u0161t\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i sna\u017eili manipulovat demokratick\u00e9 procesy a ovliv\u0148ovat politick\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm skryt\u00e9ho financov\u00e1n\u00ed, manipulace m\u00e9di\u00ed a kybernetick\u00fdch operac\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Moldavsko tak v d\u016fsledku t\u011bchto zku\u0161enost\u00ed nashrom\u00e1\u017edily cenn\u00e9 poznatky, kter\u00e9 mohou nab\u00eddnout strategick\u00e9 podn\u011bty i dal\u0161\u00edm zem\u00edm \u010del\u00edc\u00edm obdobn\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m. Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem t\u00e9to kapitoly je poskytnout hlub\u0161\u00ed porozum\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdm hybridn\u00edm operac\u00edm a identifikovat kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 pou\u010den\u00ed, je\u017e mohou p\u0159isp\u011bt k formulaci \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fdch protiopat\u0159en\u00ed v jin\u00fdch kontextech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 slova:<\/strong> hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka; hybridn\u00ed hrozby; vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb; migrace; Pobalt\u00ed<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00davod<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Ve starov\u011bk\u00e9m \u0158\u00edm\u011b bylo zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1lky ritu\u00e1lem prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdm kn\u011b\u017e\u00edmi z kolegia feti\u00e1l\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed odpov\u00eddali za to, aby v\u00e1lka byla spravedliv\u00e1 (bellum iustum<\/em>) a n\u00e1bo\u017eensky legitimn\u00ed. Feti\u00e1lov\u00e9 p\u0159i tomto \u00fakonu nejprve p\u0159ednesli po\u017eadavky (postulata<\/em>), a pokud je nep\u0159\u00edtel odm\u00edtl, po 33 dnech star\u0161\u00ed kn\u011bz (pater patratus<\/em>) vyhl\u00e1sil v\u00e1lku vr\u017een\u00edm kop\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtele (viz Santangelo 2008: 86).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Podobn\u00e9 ritu\u00e1ly existovaly i v jin\u00fdch kultur\u00e1ch, nap\u0159\u00edklad v Indii (Mah\u00e1bh\u00e1rata<\/em>) nebo v \u010c\u00edn\u011b, kde koncept \u201emand\u00e1tu nebes\u201c prop\u016fj\u010doval v\u00e1lce duchovn\u00ed a etick\u00fd rozm\u011br. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 zvyklosti se ov\u0161em op\u00edraj\u00ed o pr\u00e1vn\u00ed a diplomatickou formalitu (nap\u0159. T\u0159et\u00ed haagskou \u00famluvu z roku 1907 \u201eo zah\u00e1jen\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed\u201c), kter\u00e1 p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed vy\u017eaduje ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed ozn\u00e1men\u00ed (\u010dl\u00e1nek 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Posledn\u00ed zn\u00e1m\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky poch\u00e1z\u00ed ze 4. \u010dervna 1942, kdy Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vyhl\u00e1sily v\u00e1lku nacistick\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm, Ma\u010farsku, Bulharsku a Rumunsku (US Senate, 2025). Od t\u00e9 doby ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky obvykle chyb\u00ed a b\u00fdv\u00e1 nahrazeno rezoluc\u00ed o pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co v\u0161ak nast\u00e1v\u00e1 v situaci, kdy je v\u00e1lka vedena jin\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky, nedosahuje intenzity b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu a vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nab\u00edz\u00ed \u201e\u0161ed\u00e1 z\u00f3na\u201c nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed se kdesi mezi \u201estudenou\u201c a \u201eb\u011b\u017enou\u201c v\u00e1lkou?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jsme sv\u011bdky debaty o tom, co vlastn\u011b \u201ehybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka\u201c p\u0159edstavuje, nebo\u0165 neexistuje v\u0161eobecn\u011b p\u0159ij\u00edman\u00e1 definice tohoto pojmu, ani shoda na tom, zda jde o novou kategorii, \u010di pouze o jak\u00e9si \u201estar\u00e9 v\u00edno v nov\u00fdch m\u011b\u0161\u00edch\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro \u00fa\u010dely t\u00e9to kapitoly je pojem \u201ehybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka\u201c vymezen na z\u00e1klad\u011b n\u011bkter\u00fdch charakteristik, kter\u00e9 jsou v odborn\u00e9 literatu\u0159e p\u0159ij\u00edman\u00e9, a dal\u0161\u00edch, o nich\u017e se st\u00e1le diskutuje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hybridita ozna\u010duje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kombinaci vojensk\u00fdch a nevojensk\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f (Weissmann, 2021), p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b propojen\u00ed konven\u010dn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly s nekinetick\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky, v\u010detn\u011b kybernetick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, dezinforma\u010dn\u00edch a propagandistick\u00fdch kampan\u00ed, ekonomick\u00e9ho n\u00e1tlaku \u010di politick\u00e9 subverze. Jde o prost\u0159edky, kter\u00e9 mohou vytv\u00e1\u0159et nejednozna\u010dnost a komplikovat tradi\u010dn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 reakce c\u00edlov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zadruh\u00e9, v\u00fdznamn\u00fd probl\u00e9m hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky p\u0159edstavuje nejednozna\u010dnost a obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159i\u010ditatelnost odpov\u011bdnosti, proto\u017ee tyto aktivity jsou \u010dasto navrhov\u00e1ny a prov\u00e1d\u011bny pod prahem otev\u0159en\u00e9ho konfliktu, co\u017e zt\u011b\u017euje ur\u010den\u00ed odpov\u011bdn\u00e9ho akt\u00e9ra. Vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f, popirateln\u00fdch vykonavatel\u016f a skryt\u00fdch operac\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed slo\u017eit\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zpo\u017e\u010fuje odvetu nebo j\u00ed zcela br\u00e1n\u00ed (Rauta, 2020). Toto prost\u0159ed\u00ed b\u00fdv\u00e1 charakterizov\u00e1no jako \u201e\u0161ed\u00e1 z\u00f3na\u201c: prostor, v n\u011bm\u017e jsou mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo \u010di normy nejasn\u00e9 nebo obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b vymahateln\u00e9, anebo prostor, v n\u011bm\u017e \u00fato\u010dn\u00edci zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed zranitelnosti demokraci\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zat\u0159et\u00ed, problematick\u00e1 je p\u0159i\u010ditatelnost tak\u00e9 vzhledem k \u010detnosti c\u00edl\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00edci sleduj\u00ed. Hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka jen z\u0159\u00eddka sleduje jedin\u00fd c\u00edl, nebo\u0165 zpravidla usiluje sou\u010dasn\u011b o v\u00edce c\u00edl\u016f a vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1rove\u0148 politick\u00e9, ekonomick\u00e9 i psychologick\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky (Schroefl a Kaufman, 2014). N\u011bkter\u00e9 \u0161kody jsou nav\u00edc jen obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9: naru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry v politick\u00e9 instituce, utv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed narativ\u016f a ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed spole\u010densk\u00e9 odolnosti a soudr\u017enosti apod. m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt n\u011bkdy v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hodnotu ne\u017e zni\u010den\u00ed tov\u00e1rny \u010di muni\u010dn\u00edho skladu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S t\u00edm souvis\u00ed i \u010dtvrt\u00fd rys: hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka \u010dasto c\u00edl\u00ed na civiln\u00ed sf\u00e9ry, v\u010detn\u011b civiln\u00ed infrastruktury nebo informa\u010dn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed (Denov, 2025). Zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed se st\u00e1v\u00e1 hlavn\u00edm boji\u0161t\u011bm a ka\u017ed\u00e1 hybridn\u00ed operace m\u00e1 zpravidla i propagandistick\u00fd rozm\u011br, proto\u017ee civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo se st\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1rove\u0148 potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm c\u00edlem i destruktivn\u00edm n\u00e1strojem (nap\u0159. b\u011bhem voleb \u010di referend).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka je v\u00fdrazn\u011b asymetrick\u00e1 a vyzna\u010duje se vysokou m\u00edrou adaptability (Weissmann, 2019; Weissmann a kol., 2021). N\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje, jako jsou troll\u00ed farmy \u010di boti, webov\u00e9 str\u00e1nky podn\u011bcuj\u00edc\u00ed migra\u010dn\u00ed toky nebo levn\u00e9 drony vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed poplachy, nut\u00ed protivn\u00edky k n\u00e1kladn\u00fdm reakc\u00edm. Hybridn\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b nav\u00edc umo\u017e\u0148uje \u00fato\u010dn\u00edkovi rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 man\u00e9vrov\u00e1n\u00ed a poskytuje mu prostor k pop\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed odpov\u011bdnosti, tak\u017ee je snadn\u00e9 udr\u017eovat c\u00edlov\u00fd st\u00e1t v n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 pozici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

St\u00ednov\u00e1 flotila v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Tato kapitola se zam\u011b\u0159uje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na zku\u0161enosti pobaltsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed a Moldavska s rusk\u00fdmi hybridn\u00edmi \u00fatoky. Stru\u010dn\u011b analyzuje jednotliv\u00e9 \u00fatoky a sna\u017e\u00ed se z nich odvodit zku\u0161enosti vyu\u017eiteln\u00e9 rovn\u011b\u017e pro \u010cesko a dal\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 \u010del\u00ed rusk\u00e9 strategii hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00ed\u017ee jsou rozebr\u00e1ny p\u0159\u00edpady souvisej\u00edc\u00ed se st\u00ednovou flotilou, naru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru drony, instrumentalizac\u00ed migrace \u010di vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm do voleb, po nich\u017e n\u00e1sleduje kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 diskuse o mo\u017en\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00edch a strategi\u00edch ke zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed dopad\u016f hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem je nab\u00eddnout p\u0159enositeln\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti, kter\u00e9 by mohly slou\u017eit jako podklad pro doporu\u010den\u00ed v oblasti ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 politiky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pojem \u201est\u00ednov\u00e1 flotila\u201c v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i ozna\u010duje stovky zastar\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch, nedostate\u010dn\u011b regulovan\u00fdch a technicky nevyhovuj\u00edc\u00edch ropn\u00fdch a plynov\u00fdch tanker\u016f, kter\u00e9 Rusko vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 k obch\u00e1zen\u00ed sankc\u00ed EU p\u0159epravou ropy a LNG pod fale\u0161n\u00fdmi vlajkami, se spoofovan\u00fdmi sign\u00e1ly p\u0159es syst\u00e9m AIS nebo v r\u00e1mci netransparentn\u00edch vlastnick\u00fdch struktur. Tyto lod\u011b \u010dasto vyp\u00ednaj\u00ed sledovac\u00ed syst\u00e9my, m\u011bn\u00ed jm\u00e9na \u010di vlajky a operuj\u00ed bez odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edho poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed (viz nap\u0159. Mi\u0119tkiewicz, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vedle environment\u00e1ln\u00edch rizik jsou tato plavidla vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na k obch\u00e1zen\u00ed sankc\u00ed, mohou b\u00fdt vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na (a je potvrzeno, \u017ee jsou vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na) k sabot\u00e1\u017ei podmo\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktury a v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b vzhledem k vysok\u00e9mu riziku kolize p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed pro n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do \u0159\u00edjna 2025 uvalila EU sankce na v\u00edce ne\u017e 550 plavidel, kter\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed ke st\u00ednov\u00e9 flotile (Prime Minister of Greece, 2025), a v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b Finsko, Estonsko, Loty\u0161sko \u010di Litva prosazuj\u00ed pr\u00e1vn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed zabaven\u00ed plavidel bez st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nosti nebo plavidel pluj\u00edc\u00edch pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finsko ned\u00e1vno zadr\u017eelo lo\u010f Eagle S<\/em>, kter\u00e1 je podez\u0159el\u00e1 z \u00fa\u010dasti na sabot\u00e1\u017ei kabelov\u00e9 infrastruktury (Euronews, 2025). St\u00e1ty EU z pobaltsk\u00e9ho regionu d\u00e1le prohloubily spolupr\u00e1ci (Nordic-Baltic Eight) v oblasti n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho dohledu, sd\u00edlen\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch inspekc\u00ed. NATO nav\u00edc zah\u00e1jilo st\u00e1lou operaci zam\u011b\u0159enou na monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed aktivit st\u00ednov\u00e9 flotily a ochranu podmo\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktury (NATO, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak bylo uvedeno v\u00fd\u0161e, st\u00e1ty tento probl\u00e9m \u0159e\u0161ily strategicky, v\u010detn\u011b reakc\u00ed v oblasti obrany, bezpe\u010dnosti a environment\u00e1ln\u00edch agentur, nikoli pouze jako ot\u00e1zku n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy. Sou\u010dasn\u011b vyv\u00edjej\u00ed vnitrost\u00e1tn\u00ed a region\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u00e1vn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje, podle kter\u00fdch lze nakl\u00e1dat s plavidly bez st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nosti, s plavidly pluj\u00edc\u00edmi pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou a s nepoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdmi tankery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 je region\u00e1ln\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce, v\u010detn\u011b satelitn\u00edho monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed a spole\u010dn\u00e9ho sd\u00edlen\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed. Z toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 pot\u0159eba v\u00edce\u00farov\u0148ov\u00e9 odolnosti a spolupr\u00e1ce mezi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi akt\u00e9ry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Krize na polsko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9 hranici<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Od roku 2021 B\u011blorusko s podporou Ruska z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b usnad\u0148ovalo p\u0159\u00edchod migrant\u016f z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a Afriky. Migrant\u016fm byla ud\u011blena v\u00edza a byla jim zaji\u0161t\u011bna doprava do Minsku a n\u00e1sledn\u011b p\u0159\u00edmo k vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm hranic\u00edm EU v Polsku, Litv\u011b a Loty\u0161sku s c\u00edlem vyvolat humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed krizi a destabilizovat (\u010di kompromitovat) Polsko a Evropskou unii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, migrace byla \u201einstrumentalizov\u00e1na\u201c s c\u00edlem zv\u00fd\u0161it vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed kapit\u00e1l prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm fyzick\u00e9ho n\u00e1tlaku (tis\u00edce migrant\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b \u017een a d\u011bt\u00ed), kompromitovat hodnoty EU skrze odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed vstupu \u010di n\u00e1sil\u00ed v\u016f\u010di migrant\u016fm a v\u00e9st informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lku, kter\u00e1 vykreslovala \u201edekadentn\u00ed\u201c EU a nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 Polsko jako akt\u00e9ry poru\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed lidsk\u00e1 pr\u00e1va (Filipec, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nav\u00edc testoval soudr\u017enost EU a Polska, prov\u011b\u0159oval krizov\u00e9 reak\u010dn\u00ed mechanismy NATO a EU a zneu\u017e\u00edval velmi citliv\u00e9 t\u00e9ma migrace k polarizaci spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polsko zvolilo pom\u011brn\u011b rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed v nasazen\u00ed 15 tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f, zes\u00edlen\u00ed dohledu a sd\u00edlen\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed a ve vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed 418 km dlouh\u00e9 fyzick\u00e9 bari\u00e9ry. Sou\u010dasn\u011b byla zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bna \u010dinnost pohrani\u010dn\u00ed str\u00e1\u017ee s c\u00edlem zabr\u00e1nit n\u00e1siln\u00fdm pr\u016fnik\u016fm, nebo\u0165 n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed migranti byli vyzbrojeni holemi, no\u017ei \u010di jin\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polsko rovn\u011b\u017e zavedlo 60 km hlubok\u00e9 n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e9 p\u00e1smo, aby omezilo p\u0159\u00edstup a zabr\u00e1nilo pa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010di sabot\u00e1\u017ei (DW, 2024), a co je je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, do\u010dasn\u011b pozastavilo pr\u00e1vo na azyl pro osoby p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed hranici z B\u011bloruska s argumentem, \u017ee unijn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo bylo zneu\u017eito jako n\u00e1stroj n\u00e1tlaku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ze z\u00edskan\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed lze odvodit, \u017ee st\u00e1ty by m\u011bly vn\u00edmat migraci nejen jako humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed ot\u00e1zku, ale tak\u00e9 jako hybridn\u00ed n\u00e1stroj. P\u0159ijmeme-li, \u017ee Polsko reagovalo pragmaticky, lze d\u00e1le vyvodit, \u017ee odolnost p\u0159edstavuje v\u00edcevrstevnou kombinaci fyzick\u00fdch, pr\u00e1vn\u00edch a informa\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 mohou vytvo\u0159it do\u010dasn\u00e9 \u010di \u201ep\u0159echodn\u00e9\u201c obdob\u00ed nezbytn\u00e9 pro adaptaci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u00fdznam m\u00e1 rovn\u011b\u017e region\u00e1ln\u00ed koordinace a p\u0159\u00edprava opat\u0159en\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00edpad mo\u017en\u00e9 eskalace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Naru\u0161en\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru drony<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

V roce 2025 zaznamenalo n\u011bkolik zem\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru drony. K t\u011bmto incident\u016fm do\u0161lo v Rumunsku, D\u00e1nsku a N\u011bmecku (kde drony naru\u0161ily provoz leti\u0161\u0165); v Belgii a pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech byly drony pozorov\u00e1ny v bl\u00edzkosti vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen, zat\u00edmco leti\u0161t\u011b byla uzav\u0159ena; a v Estonsku naru\u0161ily vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor t\u0159i rusk\u00e9 letouny MiG-31, ne\u017e byly zachyceny italsk\u00fdmi letouny F-35.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tato poru\u0161en\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed suverenity p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed z\u00e1va\u017enou hrozbu pro leteck\u00fd provoz, z\u00e1rove\u0148 jsou v\u0161ak i sign\u00e1lem testov\u00e1n\u00ed reakc\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Patrn\u011b nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad se t\u00fdk\u00e1 Polska a incident\u016f z 9.\u201310. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025, kdy b\u011bhem masivn\u00edho rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na Ukrajinu vstoupilo do polsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru 19 a\u017e 23 rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f. V d\u016fsledku toho bylo uzav\u0159eno n\u011bkolik leti\u0161\u0165 (zejm\u00e9na ve Var\u0161av\u011b, Lublinu a Rzesz\u00f3w\u011b) a ve Wyryki-Woli byl zni\u010den jeden d\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polsko reagovalo rychle nasazen\u00edm letoun\u016f F-16, nizozemsk\u00fdch F-35, n\u011bmeck\u00fdch bateri\u00ed Patriot a italsk\u00fdch letoun\u016f AWACS; z\u00e1rove\u0148 aktivovalo \u010dl\u00e1nek 4 Washingtonsk\u00e9 smlouvy, kter\u00fd umo\u017e\u0148uje konzultace o bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch hrozb\u00e1ch v r\u00e1mci NATO, a Aliance zah\u00e1jila operaci Eastern Sentry zam\u011b\u0159enou na pos\u00edlenou ochranu vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru a dohled (Bukowski, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Naru\u0161en\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru drony bylo vn\u00edm\u00e1no p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jako hybridn\u00ed provokace, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem bylo testovat rychlost reakce a jednotu NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zku\u0161enost s rusk\u00fdmi drony vedla k pozn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159esto\u017ee \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk tyto incidenty ozna\u010duje za \u201enez\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e9\u201c, \u201ebez motivu\u201c \u010di \u201ebez d\u016fkaz\u016f\u201c (LBC, 2025), v r\u00e1mci hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky existuje jen minim\u00e1ln\u00ed, \u010di v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd prostor pro \u201en\u00e1hodn\u00e9\u201c ud\u00e1losti a \u017ee naru\u0161en\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru drony lze pova\u017eovat za sou\u010d\u00e1st \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed hybridn\u00ed kampan\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zadruh\u00e9 se uk\u00e1zala n\u00e1kladov\u00e1 neefektivita reakce NATO, nebo\u0165 pou\u017eit\u00ed velmi drah\u00fdch raket Patriot \u010di st\u00edhac\u00edch letoun\u016f k odstra\u0161en\u00ed levn\u00fdch dron\u016f je nevhodn\u00e9. Tato reakce odhaluje mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdhody mnohon\u00e1rodn\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany sd\u00edlej\u00edc\u00edch spole\u010dn\u00e1 pravidla zapojen\u00ed a dan\u00e1 situace p\u0159isp\u011bla k vyjasn\u011bn\u00ed hranice mezi \u010dl\u00e1nkem 4 a \u010dl\u00e1nkem 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb v Moldavsku<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

B\u011bhem prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb a referenda v roce 2024 \u010delilo Moldavsko rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9mu rusk\u00e9mu vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zahrnovalo kupov\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f, kybernetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky, dezinformace, \u0161pion\u00e1\u017e i ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Tyto aktivity prob\u00edhaly ve prosp\u011bch prokremelsk\u00e9ho oligarchy Ilana \u0218ora, jen\u017e financoval kampan\u011b a protesty. O rok pozd\u011bji, v parlamentn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch roku 2025, Rusko \u00fadajn\u011b vynalo\u017eilo v\u00edce ne\u017e 100 milion\u016f eur na nez\u00e1konn\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed, dezinformace a destabilizaci zem\u011b, v\u010detn\u011b r\u016fzn\u00fdch forem podvratn\u00e9 \u010dinnosti (Sandu, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hybridn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed zahrnovala dezinforma\u010dn\u00ed a propagandistick\u00e9 kampan\u011b koordinovan\u00e9 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed, klonovan\u00fdch webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nek (Doppelganger operations<\/em>) a z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed s c\u00edlem oslabit d\u016fv\u011bru v instituce. Tyto aktivity doprov\u00e1zely tis\u00edce kybernetick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na volebn\u00ed infrastrukturu a vl\u00e1dn\u00ed syst\u00e9my. N\u00e1sledn\u011b byly zaznamen\u00e1ny p\u0159\u00edpady kupov\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f, nez\u00e1konn\u00e9ho financov\u00e1n\u00ed kampan\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm offshore s\u00edt\u00ed a stran ovl\u00e1dan\u00fdch oligarchy (OBSE, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V pr\u016fb\u011bhu procesu doch\u00e1zelo k \u010dast\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m volebn\u00edho z\u00e1kona, kter\u00e9 mohly oslabovat d\u016fv\u011bru ve volebn\u00ed proces, a rovn\u011b\u017e k pokus\u016fm infiltrovat st\u00e1tn\u00ed instituce loaj\u00e1ln\u00edmi osobami s c\u00edlem ovlivnit volebn\u00ed spr\u00e1vu. Rusk\u00e1 hybridn\u00ed kampa\u0148 se zam\u011b\u0159ovala tak\u00e9 na diasporu, nebo\u0165 v zahrani\u010d\u00ed \u017eije p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,5 milionu Moldavan\u016f, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 vyu\u017e\u00edvala \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed strachu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm fale\u0161n\u00fdch bombov\u00fdch hrozeb, etnick\u00e9 polarizace a region\u00e1ln\u00edch rozd\u00edl\u016f (Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed a Gagauzsko) s c\u00edlem demonstrovat \u010di oslabit proevropsk\u00fd konsensus (viz Guardian, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V pr\u016fb\u011bhu voleb Moldavsko prok\u00e1zalo vysokou m\u00edru odolnosti, podpo\u0159enou monitorovac\u00edmi misemi a t\u00fdmy rychl\u00e9 reakce na hybridn\u00ed hrozby nasazen\u00fdmi OBSE, EU a USA. P\u0159\u00edpad Moldavska p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1, \u017ee bezpe\u010dnost voleb nen\u00ed pouze technickou ot\u00e1zkou, ale tak\u00e9 ot\u00e1zkou spole\u010denskou, z\u00e1vislou na medi\u00e1ln\u00ed gramotnosti, transparentn\u00edm veden\u00ed kampan\u00ed a siln\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Zm\u011bny volebn\u00edch z\u00e1kon\u016f mohou b\u00fdt kontraproduktivn\u00ed, nebo\u0165 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 je stabilita a vymahatelnost pravidel, v\u010detn\u011b mechanism\u016f umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch pot\u00edrat zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vliv (zejm\u00e9na financov\u00e1n\u00ed). Nezbytn\u00e1 je rovn\u011b\u017e spolupr\u00e1ce s dal\u0161\u00edmi akt\u00e9ry, v\u010detn\u011b respektovan\u00fdch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch organizac\u00ed, kter\u00e1 posiluje transparentnost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diskuse<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fd\u0161e analyzovan\u00e9 hybridn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e otev\u00edraj\u00ed debatu o tom, jak reagovat na nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akty Rusk\u00e9 federace. Prvn\u00ed a zcela z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, zda tyto \u201enov\u00e9 prost\u0159edky\u201c skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed n\u011bco nov\u00e9ho, nebo zda jde pouze o tradi\u010dn\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 taktiky p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00e9 digit\u00e1ln\u00ed a globalizovan\u00e9 \u00e9\u0159e, kter\u00e1 se vyzna\u010duje vz\u00e1jemnou prov\u00e1zanost\u00ed a relativn\u00edm m\u00edrem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b kybernetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky, dezinformace \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed \u010di naru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru drony p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed kapacity, kter\u00e9 v d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch form\u00e1ch v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed nefigurovaly, a nazna\u010duj\u00ed prom\u011bnu technologick\u00e9ho rozm\u011bru konfliktu. Sou\u010dasn\u011b modern\u00ed hybridn\u00ed taktiky vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomickou prov\u00e1zanost, co\u017e je oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edm epoch\u00e1m specifick\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku ch\u00e1pat v ur\u010dit\u00e9 historick\u00e9 kontinuit\u011b, nebo\u0165 propaganda, sabot\u00e1\u017e \u010di skryt\u00e9 ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed existuj\u00ed ji\u017e po stalet\u00ed a digit\u00e1ln\u00ed sf\u00e9ra p\u0159edstavuje sp\u00ed\u0161e strukturu ne\u017e m\u00e9dium \u010di samotnou podstatu konfliktu. Obdobn\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nezm\u011bn\u011bna i strategick\u00e1 logika: oslabit protivn\u00edka, co\u017e se podob\u00e1 subverzivn\u00edm praktik\u00e1m z obdob\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. \u00da\u010dinn\u00e1 strategie boje proti hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lce by proto m\u011bla spojovat historickou zku\u0161enost s modern\u00edmi technologick\u00fdmi protiopat\u0159en\u00edmi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Druh\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed, jak m\u00e1 b\u00fdt strukturov\u00e1na odolnost. Jde o mnohostrann\u00fd probl\u00e9m (pr\u00e1vn\u00ed, technick\u00fd, spole\u010densk\u00fd), nebo o probl\u00e9m \u010dist\u011b vojensk\u00fd, a m\u00e1 se s n\u00edm tedy podle toho zach\u00e1zet? Tato ot\u00e1zka m\u00e1 rovn\u011b\u017e d\u016fsledky pro region\u00e1ln\u00ed a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci (NATO, EU, OBSE).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka zasahuje pr\u00e1vn\u00ed, informa\u010dn\u00ed i spole\u010denskou sf\u00e9ru a \u010dist\u011b vojensk\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed by jen obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b reagovala na dezinformace \u010di vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb. Region\u00e1ln\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na v\u00edce\u00farov\u0148ovou odolnost nav\u00edc podporuje synergii mezi NATO, EU a OBSE a umo\u017e\u0148uje vyu\u017e\u00edvat komplement\u00e1rn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b siln\u00fd vojensk\u00fd postoj zvy\u0161uje riziko eskalace a n\u00e1klad\u016f, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee sni\u017eovat motivaci k hybridn\u00edm provokac\u00edm. Nadm\u011brn\u011b komplikovan\u00e1 koncepce odolnosti v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u00e1kladn\u00e1 a zpomalovat rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, co\u017e je v rozporu s flexibilitou hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Odolnost tedy mus\u00ed b\u00fdt mnohotv\u00e1rn\u00e1, av\u0161ak z\u00e1rove\u0148 mus\u00ed vyva\u017eovat komplexnost a rychlost jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, aby se p\u0159edch\u00e1zelo pomal\u00fdm reakc\u00edm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b t\u0159et\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, jak \u0159e\u0161it n\u00e1kladovou efektivitu a proporcionalitu reakc\u00ed \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad jak \u010delit n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00fdm hybridn\u00edm n\u00e1stroj\u016fm, ani\u017e by doch\u00e1zelo k vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed zdroj\u016f, nebo jak \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b reagovat na nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akty, ani\u017e by byly podkop\u00e1v\u00e1ny demokratick\u00e9 hodnoty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee je nutn\u00e9 zabr\u00e1nit od\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed zdroj\u016f a \u017ee pou\u017eit\u00ed raket Patriot proti levn\u00fdm dron\u016fm nen\u00ed z hlediska \u00farovn\u011b hrozby udr\u017eitelnou prax\u00ed. P\u0159ehnan\u00e1 reakce m\u016f\u017ee nav\u00edc podkopat pr\u00e1v\u011b ty principy, kter\u00e9 stoj\u00ed za to br\u00e1nit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b zde existuj\u00ed argumenty zalo\u017een\u00e9 na v\u011brohodnosti a odstra\u0161en\u00ed. I n\u00e1kladn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed mohou signalizovat odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed, jednotu a pevnost postoje, a t\u00edm poskytnout pot\u0159ebn\u00fd odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek v\u016f\u010di budouc\u00ed agresi. Stejn\u011b tak ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f z d\u016fvodu \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00e9 ceny\u201c jejich odvracen\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako projev slabosti, kter\u00fd vyb\u00edz\u00ed k eskalaci. Je proto nezbytn\u00e9 investovat do levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch protiopat\u0159en\u00ed (protivzdu\u0161n\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f proti dron\u016fm, kybernetick\u00e9 obrany) a sou\u010dasn\u011b zachov\u00e1vat jasn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka se stala nov\u00fdm standardem ve vztaz\u00edch mezi st\u00e1ty sd\u00edlej\u00edc\u00edmi v\u00fdchodn\u00ed hranici EU a Ruskou federac\u00ed a je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by se tato situace zm\u011bnila. Pr\u00e1v\u011b naopak: p\u0159esto\u017ee c\u00edlov\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z\u00edskaly nov\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti, nad\u00e1le setrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed v defenzivn\u00ed pozici, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee signalizovat zranitelnost a slabost a vyb\u00edzet k eskalaci a dal\u0161\u00edmu \u201etestov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c jejich slab\u00fdch m\u00edst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b p\u0159edstavuje rusk\u00e9 um\u011bn\u00ed hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 testuje r\u016fzn\u00e9 vrstvy odolnosti, p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed instituc\u00ed a mechanism\u016f; na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee znamenat existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu. To plat\u00ed zejm\u00e9na pro zem\u011b v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy nebo Balk\u00e1nu, kter\u00e9 \u010del\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm, v\u010detn\u011b slab\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed, slab\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, korupce apod., je\u017e se mohou uk\u00e1zat jako p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky p\u0159i budov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tu odoln\u00e9ho v\u016f\u010di hybridn\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ur\u010dit\u00fd d\u016fvod k optimismu p\u0159ineslo Moldavsko, kter\u00e9 b\u011bhem parlamentn\u00edch voleb v roce 2025 \u010delilo rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9mu hybridn\u00edmu \u00fatoku a obst\u00e1lo v n\u011bm; tyto volby byly pozoruhodn\u00e9 mobilizac\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti a proevropsk\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toto d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed by v\u0161ak nem\u011blo v\u00e9st k iluzi bezpe\u010d\u00ed ani k podcen\u011bn\u00ed hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Naopak p\u0159edstavuje d\u016fkaz, \u017ee akt\u00e9\u0159i hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky jsou v subverzivn\u00edch \u00fatoc\u00edch velmi kreativn\u00ed, a je proto zcela nam\u00edst\u011b kl\u00e1st si ot\u00e1zku, kde a jak \u00fatok nastane p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doporu\u010den\u00ed<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Na v\u0161echny hybridn\u00ed akce je t\u0159eba reagovat dostupn\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky a op\u011btovat je<\/strong>, p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9m respektov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sady proporcionality, aby nevznikal dojem slabosti a nebyla vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1na dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Je nezbytn\u00e9 podporovat v\u00edcevrstevnou odolnost<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 vyva\u017euje zapojen\u00ed a odpov\u011bdnost jednotliv\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 komplikovanosti proces\u016f, je\u017e by mohla v\u00e9st ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00ed a k r\u016fstu n\u00e1klad\u016f v d\u016fsledku pomal\u00e9ho rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se dost\u00e1vala do rozporu s flexibilitou hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Je t\u0159eba p\u0159ej\u00edt od reaktivn\u00ed odpov\u011bdi na hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku k proaktivn\u00edmu akt\u00e9rstv\u00ed<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 bude p\u0159edv\u00eddat a zm\u00edr\u0148ovat potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed budouc\u00ed kampan\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9ho odstra\u0161en\u00ed. Prvn\u00edm krokem je uznat hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku jako sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav v\u011bc\u00ed a porozum\u011bt hybridn\u00edm akt\u016fm v cel\u00e9 jejich komplexnosti.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Literatura<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

    Bukowski, Maciej. \u201eAttack on Poland: Russia\u2019s Debris Still Falling.\u201d Center for European Policy Analysis, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Denov, Myriam. \u201eHybrid Threats and Human Security: The Impact of Hybrid War and Hybrid Interference on Civilians.\u201d Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research<\/em> 17, \u010d. 3 (2025): 157\u201370.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    DW. \u201ePoland, Baltics Step Up Border Controls amid Migrants Crisis.\u201d DW, 16. \u010dervna 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Euronews. \u201eFinnish Police Detain Russian \u2018Ghost Fleet\u2019 Ship Crew as Cable Damage Probe Continues.\u201d Euronews, 3. ledna 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Filipec, Ondrej. \u201eMultilevel Analysis of the 2021 Poland-Belarus Border Crisis in the Context of Hybrid Threats.\u201d Central European Journal of Politics<\/em> 8, \u010d. 1 (2022): 1\u201318.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Guardian. \u201eMoldovan Diaspora Critical in Elections as Country Battles Russian Vote-Buying, Says Former Minister.\u201d Guardian<\/em>, 27. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Haagsk\u00e1 \u00famluva III o zah\u00e1jen\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed. 18. \u0159\u00edjna 1907.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    LBC. \u201eRussia Denies Russian Drones over Poland Were Russian.\u201d LBC Full Interview<\/em>, 18. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Mider, Daniel, a Marcin \u017b\u00f3\u0142towski. \u201eCorrelates of Poles\u2019 Resilience to Disinformation\u2013Opinions and Countermeasures.\u201d Democracy and Security<\/em> (2025): 1\u201330.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Mi\u0119tkiewicz, Rafa\u0142. \u201eHybrid Threats in the Baltic Sea. The Results of Analysis of Countermeasure Options.\u201d Terroryzm. Studia, Analizy, Prewencja<\/em>, Special (2025): 35\u201370.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NATO. \u201eNATO Launches \u2018Baltic Sentry\u2019 to Increase Critical Infrastructure Security.\u201d NATO, 14. ledna 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    OBSE. \u201eMoldova\u2019s Parliamentary Elections Were Competitive but Campaign Marred by Cyberattacks, Illegal Funding and Disinformation, International Observers Say.\u201d OSCE, 29. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Prime Minister of Greece. \u201ePrime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis\u2019 Meeting with the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas.\u201d 6. listopadu 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Rauta, Vladimir. \u201eTowards a Typology of Non-State Actors in \u2018Hybrid Warfare\u2019: Proxy, Auxiliary, Surrogate and Affiliated Forces.\u201d Cambridge Review of International Affairs<\/em> 33, \u010d. 6 (2020): 868\u201387.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Sandu, Sanda. \u201eMoldova\u2019s 2025 Elections: A Pro-European Victory Despite Russia\u2019s Hybrid Threats.\u201d Stimson, 2. \u0159\u00edjna 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Santangelo, Federico. \u201eThe Fetials and Their \u2018Ius.\u2019\u201d Bulletin of the Institute of Classical Studies<\/em> 51 (2008): 63\u201393.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Schroefl, Josef, a Stuart J. Kaufman. \u201eHybrid Actors, Tactical Variety: Rethinking Asymmetric and Hybrid War.\u201d Studies in Conflict & Terrorism<\/em> 37, \u010d. 10 (2014): 862\u201380.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    United States Senate. \u201eAbout Declarations of War by Congress.\u201d Declaration of War against Bulgaria, Hungary and Rumania, hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed Sen\u00e1tu 73\u20130, 4. \u010dervna 1942.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Weissmann, Mikael. \u201eConceptualizing and Countering Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare: The Role of the Military in the Grey Zone.\u201d In Hybrid Warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations<\/em>, editovali Mikael Weissmann, Niklas Nilsson, Bj\u00f6rn Palmertz a Per Thunholm, 61\u201382. Lond\u00fdn: I.B. Tauris, 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Weissmann, Mikael. \u201eHybrid Warfare and Hybrid Threats Today and Tomorrow: Towards an Analytical Framework.\u201d Journal on Baltic Security<\/em> 5, \u010d. 1 (2019): 17\u201326.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Weissmann, Mikael, et al. Hybrid Warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations.<\/em> Lond\u00fdn: Bloomsbury Academic, 2021.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Shrnut\u00ed V posledn\u00edch letech Rusk\u00e1 federace zes\u00edlila sv\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 hybridn\u00ed aktivity zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na destabilizaci c\u00edlov\u00fdch zem\u00ed a prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed revizionistick\u00fdch ambic\u00ed. Z historick\u00e9ho a geopolitick\u00e9ho hlediska je rusk\u00e1 hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b intenzivn\u00ed pod\u00e9l v\u00fdchodn\u00edch hranic Evropsk\u00e9 unie, kde se projevuje v nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch podob\u00e1ch: od tzv. st\u00ednov\u00fdch flotil operuj\u00edc\u00edch v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i a instrumentalizace migrace na polsko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9 […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":22392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22391","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22391"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22391\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22393,"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22391\/revisions\/22393"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.thinktopaz.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}